360DigitalInfluence

I am not ready to make any 2008 predictions (okay, I could do it at the drop of a hat which makes me suspiscious about the quality of those predictions.) Instead, I decided I would read and collect other people’s predictions. What might happen should a few trends persist and a few stars align.

At this time every year we are driven to be reflective and predictive. Also, the really sharp bloggers know the value of a good list to overall ‘linkmanship.’

So what happens? I quickly discover that Darren Herman has created the Digital Media and Internet Uber 2008 Prediction List.

Still, more are rolling in and I would like to focus on those that involve social media and marketing (his list is a bit broader). So, I am going to add a short list of additions here and My Take on each one. Let me know what you find.

Mark’s Predictions at Mashable
Social Networking Predictions: Between Google and Facebook, Mark’s money is on Google reaching their goal of being the new defacto lead in utility via their network-delivered apps. That is over Facebook transcending it’s problems (trust) to convert platform into virtual operating system.

Intellectual property: Big year for continued Big Studio Music Industry implosion, more gadgets to display independent video on TV sets and the almost inevitable emergence of the Listener License.

“Attentioning” will be the new “social graph” in terms of buzzwords. Mark’s refering to an effort to embrace behavioral marketing with a slight edge of control to the user. The idea is blossoming as Attention Profiling Mark-up Language. He explains it pretty well here.

“The concept of APML is that it allows you to share your “attention profile” data with other users, organisations or programs in the same way you might share your OPML file with someone. The most compelling reason I can gather why the internet world as a whole needs to line up behind the concept of APML because companies are already gathering so much data that used to be considered private and sacred, so we all need to get out in front of it now and define the process of gathering that information, and attempt - as users - to control a bit of that.”

The audio and video podcasting community will grow up a bit to offer more standard ad values. I think Mark sees them retaining a bit of the head start they may have over their traditional media counterparts.

The scramble for all things “green” will continue with investment dollars chasing windmills of “clean tech”.

More devices (”Hand me your Facebook, dude”)

More bubble (as in it doesn’t break)
My Take: No one seems able to predict what the social network landscape will look like a year from now. I believe it will get muddier before it gets clearer. What is a social network now? What will be the most successful ingredients going into the future? Mark talks about Google under the ’social network” header not because of Open Social or Orkut, but beause of their dominance in the application “cloud” arena. I always talk about BlogHer as a social network largely because they have proven the strong affinity members have for each other via their successful terrestrial events.

Mark is dead-on about the “maturing” of the podcasting community. The writer’s strike helped goose that along, too. We will see some new content “channels” and producers spring up alongside a respectable ad/sponsorship practice (the models already exist).

While I think that “Attention” will be a big buzzword this year, it is because marketers will trade in ‘engagement’ for ‘attention’. I doubt the average users appetite to “manage” their own profiles for the sake of more relevant advertising.
Steve’s Predictions at Micropersuasion
Steve is beginning a series of 2008 predictions. This one could be labeled:

Advertisers bypass snoozing media
Okay, Steve didn’t put I that way but I want to try to get him in trouble. His prediction is that more and more “advertisers” will become media, themselves. This is the result of the trust-thing (less trust in advertising, more in people), companies gaining experience in digital and the realization that they can build direct relationships with customers. Here’s a snippet:

“The media’s challenge is to figure out how to thrive in transition as their big advertisers recognize they can use the web to bypass them. The key for the media is to use their reach to help marketers quickly build scale for their own content. This is no easy feat for businesses that have long fulfilled the producer role. However, they may increasingly need to find a way to balance their own content with advertiser-created offerings they host.

Should the media fail to transition in 2008, it’s conceivable that more marketers will go it alone and the media will see their audience and dollars erode.”

My Take: It is happening right and left. Many marketers (especially on teh B2C side) start by thinking about creating branded entertainment. Many are going well beyond these little internet time-wasters. Look at what Trent Reznor did with 42 Entertainment. He doesn’t even want to consider that immersive online experience as marketing for his music.

The digitally-savvy media has a strong lead on maintaining large audiences and knowing quite a bit about them. As companies wnat toi build strong, engagement-based relationships with smaller numbers of loyal and vocal customers, they will do so directly more and more.

ReadWriteWeb sees 2008 as the Year of Business Networking.

Essentially, Bernard sees the slowdown in the economy heating up B2B in general. He goes on to list a series of sub-predictions including Plaxo and Linked In becoming one.

My Take: One place where I think he has it wrong is with Facebook. He says they stay focused on consumer. I say they are already becoming a B2B force to be reckoned with.

There are a lot of other pedictions - especially in Darren’s list. They tend to say some of the obvious things like 2008 is the year of mobile or that there will be continued jockeying between the big social networks.

Here are some others:
Web Guild:Local Social Media Predicitons for 2008

Mashable’s 2008 Predictions: Sean’s List

ReadWriteWeb’s 2008 Predicitions: a Compilation

What are your predictions for 2008?